Posterous theme by Cory Watilo

Why the RMB is Unlikely to Replace the Greenback

In "The Renminbi: The Political Economy of a Currency" in Foreign Policy magazine, 
(http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/09/07/the_renminbi_the_political_economy_of_a_currency?print=yes&hidecomments=yes&page=full), Arthur Kroeber tells us not to worry about the RMB replacing the US dollar as a reserve currency, ambitions of the PBOC notwithstanding.

Yet the leap from that role to a major reserve currency is a very large one, and the prospect of the RMB becoming a reserve currency on the order of the euro — let alone replacing the dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency — is remote. The reason is simple: To be a reserve currency, you need to have safe, liquid, low-risk assets for foreign investors to buy; these assets must trade on markets that are transparent, open to foreign investors, and free from manipulation.

The Meaning of the Guo Meimei Incident

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the Guo Meimei incident is nicely summarized at the conclusion  of "The Annotated Guo Meimei Interview" in The Hypermodern
(http://www.thehypermodern.com/2011/08/26/the-annotated-guo-meimei-interview/#.TldQFBl3fIE.twitter)

We shouldn’t worry about a country that has corruption, if that country has effective government institutions. But we should worry about a country where the biggest scandal involving an international charity was not revealed by the government, the judiciary, the media, or any other relevant organ, but by the careless words of a rich, spoiled girl.

China's problem is not corruption: corruption is the bane of nearly every society. What hampers China is weak institutions and a malfunctioning collective moral compass.

Formula for Success, or Volatile Compound?

In a superb article in The Globe and Mail about "The roots of the Sino-Forest mystery" (http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTM4MDYyNTY%3D), the writers offer an interesting insight that applies to all business in China:

While the soft-spoken but gregarious Mr. Chan became Sino-Forest’s public face, helping to raise billions of dollars from Canadian and international investors, Mr. Poon, now 70, provided relationships or guanxi with government forestry officials, connections that in China are key to doing business.

Sino-Forest was started and operated by one partner with guanxi in China, one with international investors, and nobody with any idea how to run a profitable forestry products business.

Unfortunately, we see plenty of these kinds of companies in China. They tell a great story, and manage to convince otherwise unknowing investors that all you need in China is cash an guanxi, and you have a combination for success.

Even if that were once the case, it is no longer. If you are investing in a business in China, remember that the ability to raise cash and pull guanxi is the icing, not the cake. Without corporate leadership steeped in the operational challenges of the business, a company is either an outright fraud or roadkill. Either way, it is going to blow up in your face.

An Ode to Banquet Fatigue

One problem we no longer see so much of in China: Banquet Fatigue.

Banquet fatigue, for those unfamiliar with the phenomenon, is the malaise and depression that sets in when you realize that you are on your 14th banquet with government officials, yet you are no nearer than you were before to obtaining that chop or license you set out to get. 

Other symptoms include an irrational fear of sharks fin soup, the delusional belief that "Lazy Susan" is in fact another name for Satan, and moderate to severe liver damage. 

The next time you hear another China Hand pine for the "good old days," simply speak the word "banquet" to them. Then watch as their sight grows distant, their jaw goes slack, their expression hollows, and they nod slowly in complete understanding. It is the culinary equivalent of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. 

Hoping China Continues to Go Its Own Economic Way

China, America, and Copycat Economics - Rob Wheeler - Harvard Business Review
http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/08/china_america_and_copy_cat_eco.html?cm_mmc=email-_-newsletter-_-weekly_hotlist-_-hotlist082911&referral=00202

The real danger to American economic hegemony is not that China continues its current economic policies into the future. Instead, the greatest danger to America’s remaining at the apex of the global economy is that the future Chinese economic policy looks increasingly American.

(via Instapaper)

Amen. Fortunately for America and unfortunately for China, China is going the other way.

Article: Nokia Crashing in China, Distributors Refusing Nokia Products | Penn-Olson

Nokia Crashing in China, Distributors Refusing Nokia Products | Penn-Olson
http://www.penn-olson.com/2011/08/15/nokia-crashing-in-china/

More concerning for Nokia is that many of its China distributors are no longer interested in selling its products and have refused to buy them. With plummeting sales numbers and domestic retailers jumping ship, it could be almost impossible for Nokia to make a comeback in China.

(via Instapaper)

Nokia's market advantage in China was what I call the cluster effect. The opinion leader of a group buys a brand. Slowly, everyone else does, too. There is subtle social pressure to conform, and if you have no strong opinion of your own, you go ahead and buy the same as everyone else.

For years, Nokia held those clusters. They have now lost the opinion leaders, and so sales are collapsing. All they have left is a shrinking group of fanboys.

Back at You, GQ

GQ has apparently just named Los Angeles the second-worst-dressed city in the United States. What I really think riles the sartorial feathers of GQ's editors is the fact that what GQ says means so very little outside the confines of the climactically-challenged cities of the U.S. East Coast. One hears in this fashion j'accuse the petulance of rejection, not only of GQ's style-hyperconscious editors or its ranks of haute couture advertisers, but of the very lifestyle GQ represents. Southern California has been studiously ignoring the rag for decades now: their rating simply flips the bird at people who are busy doing other things.

Give it up, GQ. You are a regional magazine now, and your region is shrinking even as the world is growing.

Study in Cup

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Five and a half years after purchasing my first digital SLR and taking up photography as a hobby, I'm finally starting to produce stuff that I'd be willing to hang on my own wall, even if somebody else wouldn't. I usually work in black-and-white, but this was just too much fun, and I got almost everything right.

Yes, it's derivative and unoriginal. No, I'm not ready for LACMA or the Guggenheim, but I am starting to grok photography as an art form.